Why Enrollment Yield Is Slipping and What Institutions Can Do About It

For enrollment leaders, few challenges are more frustrating than watching a promising incoming class take shape on paper, only to see students opt out before move-in day. 

Applications remain an important enrollment metric, but they do not guarantee enrollment outcomes. Across higher education, institutions are facing a growing challenge: admitted students who never matriculate. Harvard University’s Strategic Data Project says approximately 10-40% of college-intending students in the United States succumb to summer melt each year.  

Whether referred to as non-matriculation, enrollment melt, or summer melt, the result is the same—students who once showed strong interest ultimately choose a different path. For colleges and universities navigating enrollment pressures, understanding why admitted students do not enroll has become just as important as generating applications in the first place.

The traditional enrollment funnel assumes that once a student receives an acceptance letter, the institution has completed the hardest part of the journey. In reality, the period between admission and enrollment is often where institutions lose momentum.

Students continue evaluating competing offers, weighing affordability concerns, seeking reassurance about their decision, and gathering information from sources beyond institutional communications. As a result, reducing non-matriculation requires more than stronger recruitment campaigns. It requires a deliberate strategy for building confidence, eliminating uncertainty, and reinforcing institutional value throughout the post-admission experience.

In this blog, we’ll explore the most common causes of non-matriculation, where institutions typically lose momentum, and how higher education can use clear marketing strategies to improve enrollment yield and reduce melt.

Understanding Non-Matriculation and Summer Melt

Non-matriculation happens when a student is admitted to an institution but ultimately chooses not to enroll. A closely related challenge is summer melt, which refers to students who indicate an intention to enroll, often by submitting a deposit, but never arrive on campus.

According to research highlighted by Harvard’s Strategic Data Project, summer melt not only affects between 10 to 40% of college-intending students but often with rates higher among first-generation students and those from lower-income households.

While institutions often view melt as an admissions issue, the reality is more complex. Non-matriculation typically results from a combination of financial, emotional, informational, and logistical factors that emerge during the months between acceptance and enrollment.

Understanding those factors is the first step toward uncovering the problem and improving enrollment yield.

Why Admitted Students Choose Not to Enroll

Affordability and Financial Uncertainty’s Impact on Enrollment Yield

Despite years of discussion around college affordability, cost remains one of the most significant drivers of non-matriculation. Students and families often receive multiple financial aid packages from competing institutions. Even when aid is available, understanding the true cost of attendance can be difficult. Questions about loans, scholarships, payment plans, and long-term debt frequently create uncertainty during the decision-making process.

Research from multiple higher education organizations continues to show that affordability concerns influence where students enroll and whether they enroll at all.

For institutions, this means financial aid communication cannot stop at award notifications. Students need context, guidance, and clear explanations that help them understand both immediate costs and long-term value.

Students Continue Questioning the Value of Higher Education

Today’s prospective students are approaching higher education differently from previous generations.

They are asking practical questions:

• Will this degree help me secure employment?
• What careers do graduates pursue?
• What are the earning outcomes?
• How quickly can I enter the workforce?
• Is this investment worth the cost?

These questions are not signs of skepticism. They reflect a more outcomes-focused enrollment mindset, where prospects are critically evaluating how an institution fits into their long-term goals.

Institutions that clearly communicate career pathways, employer partnerships, internship opportunities, alumni success stories, and workforce outcomes are often better positioned to strengthen enrollment yield.

Where Institutions Lose Momentum After Admission

One of the most common enrollment mistakes is treating admission as the finish line. In reality, admission marks the beginning of a critical decision-making phase.

Students who have been accepted continue evaluating their options, often for weeks or months. During this period, they are comparing institutions, discussing choices with family members, researching online, and gathering feedback from peers.

Meanwhile, many institutions shift their communications away from persuasion and toward process management. Students begin receiving emails about forms, deadlines, and enrollment requirements. While those communications are important, they rarely answer the questions students are actually asking.

Students want reassurance that they are making the right decision. They want to know what campus life feels like. They want to understand how they will find support, build relationships, and succeed.

Institutions that focus exclusively on logistics during this stage risk losing the emotional connection that helped generate the application in the first place.

The Messaging Issue That Undermines Confidence

Non-matriculation is rarely the result of one decision. More often, it reflects a series of small communication failures that leave students uncertain at the exact moment they need reassurance. After acceptance, colleges and universities often rely too heavily on transactional reminders and not enough on messaging that helps students feel confident, connected, and committed to enrolling.

That is a missed messaging and communications opportunity. Admission should begin a more intentional phase of relationship-building. Students need to hear from institutions in ways that answer both practical and emotional questions: What happens next? What will it cost? Will I belong here? Who will support me once I arrive?

This is where marketing communications can do what operations alone cannot. Institutions should use the post-admission window to build confidence through consistent, student-centered touchpoints. That might include welcome messages from faculty or student leaders, short videos explaining what to expect during the transition to campus, personalized emails reflecting a student’s academic interests, or stories from current students that make the decision feel real and relatable.

When communications are intentional, they reduce non-matriculation through reassurance and by ensuring the student’s choice feels supported at every step.

Reduce Non-Matriculation Through Clarity and Reassurance

The institutions that successfully reduce melt are often the institutions that reduce uncertainty.

Simplify the Enrollment Experience

Students should never have to wonder:

• What do I need to do next?
• When is this due?
• Where do I complete this process?
• Who should I contact if I need help?

Every enrollment communication should provide a clear next step. Reducing complexity improves the student experience while increasing the likelihood that students complete critical enrollment tasks.

Answer Questions Before Students Ask Them

Enrollment communications frequently focus on deadlines. Students, however, are often focused on concerns. Institutions can build confidence by proactively addressing topics such as:

• Academic support resources
• Residence life expectations
• Campus safety
• Student organizations
• Mental health services
• Career preparation opportunities
• First-year success programs

When institutions anticipate common concerns, they reduce uncertainty and strengthen confidence.

Reinforce Belonging Throughout the Enrollment Journey

Students are more likely to enroll when they can picture themselves succeeding on campus, so belonging should be reinforced from inquiry through attendance. Institute for Higher Education Policy (IHEP) states that student experience and belonging are primary drivers of postsecondary success, finding that “students who scored highly on belonging measures had among the highest retention rates in a study of 1,400 first-years at a diverse research university.”

Frankel has worked with many institutions’ enrollment teams to create a segmented communications strategy that keeps belonging front and center throughout the enrollment journey. Rather than relying on one-size-fits-all reminders, we take a research-insight approach to inform targeted email and text campaigns for admitted students, first-generation students, transfer students, and students entering different colleges or programs. Those communications could include messaging from current students, faculty introductions, simple explainers about next steps, and digital content that highlights student organizations, support services, and campus traditions. The point is not just to move students through a checklist, but to help them feel confident that they already have a place at the institution.

That kind of approach turns enrollment communications into a belonging strategy. When students consistently hear messages that reflect their goals, address their concerns, and show them what life on campus will look like, they are more likely to picture themselves there and follow through with enrollment.

Marketing strategies higher ed can use to cultivate a sense of belonging earlier

• Use storytelling – Storytelling should do more than showcase campus highlights; it should help students see themselves in the experience. Profiles, video vignettes, and first-person narratives can show how students with different interests, identities, and goals find community and purpose at the institution. The goal is to reduce uncertainty and replace it with familiarity.
• Show real student experiences – Authentic student stories are often more persuasive than institutional claims because they feel relatable and specific. Moments could include how a student found their major, joined a club, met a mentor, or navigated a tough transition. These details help prospects picture the everyday reality of belonging, not just the final success story.
• Humanize faculty and staff interactions – Faculty and staff can be part of the enrollment value proposition when they feel accessible and supportive. Short faculty videos, advisor introductions, and strong staff appreciation content can signal that students will not be navigating the institution alone. This matters especially for students who are looking for guidance, reassurance, or academic confidence before they commit.
• Extend community engagement beyond the campus tour – Community engagement can help students see how the institution fits into their life, not just their academic plans. Student takeover content, local partnerships, virtual events, and peer-to-peer chats can give prospects a sense of the social and cultural environment they would enter. When done well, these touchpoints make the institution feel lived-in and welcoming.
• Demonstrate proof points that belonging is real – Belonging works best when it is supported by evidence. You can point to retention data, student participation, mentoring programs, first-year support, or engagement outcomes to show that the institution backs up its promise. That combination of emotional appeal and concrete proof makes the message more credible.

Improving Enrollment Yield Requires More Than Recruitment

Non-matriculation is not simply an admissions challenge. It is a communication challenge and an engagement challenge.

Institutions that reduce melt successfully tend to share a common characteristic: they make it easier for students to feel confident about their decision. That confidence comes from clear communication, authentic stories, transparent outcomes data, and a digital presence that answers questions wherever students are searching for answers.

At Frankel, we help higher education institutions create enrollment marketing strategies that strengthen yield and build trust throughout the student journey. Our approach combines research, audience insights, storytelling, and digital strategy to address the questions students are actually asking rather than solely the information institutions want to provide. We help institutions meet students where decisions are being made and forge the confidence that turns admitted students into enrolled students. If your institution is looking to improve enrollment outcomes and reduce melt, let’s talk.